Just My Darned Opinion: Does anybody want to win the AFC?

If the six teams in last season’s AFC playoffs want return trips, they have funny ways of showing it.

Attrition, injuries and the percentages stand to hit those six teams hard this season, which will make either for a fun horse race in the AFC or a sloggy mess of struggling teams.

Here are looks at what’s gone on (and, largely, wrong) with each of the teams since the end of the Super Bowl, and what could be going right for one surprise squad, based on the opinion of a man armed only with a laptop and a recliner.

(Thanks to Bleacher Report, Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Outsiders for much of the info here.)



BALTIMORE

No defending Super Bowl champion ever lost more starters during the ensuing offseason than this year’s version of the Ravens, and the exodus has been a trend covering the last two years.

Now, this is Baltimore, and that means General Manager Ozzie Newsome, and that usually means only good things for the Ravens, since they’ve won a little better than 60 percent of their games since he was named GM in 2002. Still, that’s a ton of attrition to deal with in a relatively short time.

They picked up sack-meister Elvis Dumervil to bookend fellow quarterback-eater Terrell Suggs, plus they’re getting back Ladarius Webb back in the secondary. Statistically, that will help at least offset the losses of linebacker Ray Lewis (retirement) and safety Ed Reed (free agency).

But here’s the thing: Their magic-carpet ride of a postseason run was based largely on the insanely great play of Joe Flacco, the suddenly super-rich quarterback who has never been much more than slightly above-average in a season so far in his five-year career. Can he do this for most of a regular season, especially after losing two highly important receivers in Anquan Boldin (trade) and Dennis Pitta (injury)? It’s not something I’d want to bet on for the long haul of the regular season.

The bottom won’t drop out. But it could drop just enough to make a return trip to the Super Bowl tough at a minimum.

CINCINNATI
Lo and behold, the Bengals – they of the 14 straight non-winning seasons not that long ago – have become a consistent playoff performer.   
They improved their rankings on defense and in points scored from the 2011 season, too. Quarterback Andy Dalton improved last season, even while getting sacked almost twice as much as the season before.  
And there is where my concern lies with the Bengals. 
The offensive line allowed the seventh-most sacks in the league. Now, some stats say that that may be due to Dalton a bit, but the Bengals’ running game was 19^th in yards per carry and 18^th in yards per game. Pro Football Focus had the Bengals’ line ranked pretty high, and Pro Football Outsiders gave the line mostly decent marks.

Granted, it had to overcome the loss of key signee Travelle Wharton during last season’s preseason. Then again, in the last two playoff games, the Bengals allowed six sacks.  

The Bengals didn't seem to make many changes to the line, so it's going to be the same group again. The statistics here are just inconsistent enough going into this season to make this a hazy area – and one that could keep the Bengals from taking that next step.

DENVER

What a mess this is turning into. 

Yeah, they added Wes Welker to make the passing game even better, but that’s like adding power to a jet engine. Is Welker’s addition going to be more of a gain than losing another starting center to injury, linebacking beast Von Miller possibly for the first four games to drug suspension and Dumervil to the perils of operating a fax machine? And with the ever-present threat of Peyton Manning’s precarious health?

Maybe as a Broncos fan, I'm given to a sense of doom. Maybe I'm just being stupid. But I just get the feeling that this team’s window of greatness is closing fast, and that it wasn’t that big of a window. Maybe more of dryer-vent hole. 

HOUSTON

Say one thing for the Texans: They’re consistent in the broad view.

Looking at the squad averages for the past two seasons, they’re almost freakishly identical. And Houston even had the same results in the playoffs each year: Beat Cincinnati in the first round, lose in the second round.

However, they signed Reed, only to watch him go under the knife for hip surgery. And Arian Foster, he of the 15 rushing touchdowns last season, has been battling a calf injury seemingly all offseason. Also keep in mind that while he’s been a consistent double-digit TD guy, his per-carry average has dropped for two straight seasons, and his receiving yardage numbers really took a nose-dive last season. 

Does this team ever plan to get better? Better hurry up and decide fast.

INDIANAPOLIS

The question with the Colts is less about attrition and more about competition – or lack thereof.

Last season, according to Pro Football Outsiders, the Colts made the playoffs going against the easiest schedule in the league. Based on the statistical analysis there, the Colts were projected to be a six-win team last season ... and ended up 11-5.
What immensely helped them was their record in close games. The Colts went ridiculous 8-1 in games decided by seven points or less. By comparison, the Patriots, who were one win better than the Colts during the regular season, were 4-4 in similar games. The Ravens, one fewer win but the eventual Super Bowl champions, were 6-4.
So basically, Indy got fat on a slate of subpar opponents, and had a razor-thin margin for error while doing so. Comeback king Andrew Luck can pull the team's collective fat out of the fire only so many times before reality sets in. 

NEW ENGLAND

Here’s everything Tom Brady won’t have at the beginning of this season and for an indefinite time afterward: 338 receptions, 29 touchdowns, 3,984 receiving yards. Those are the totals comprised by Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Danny Woodhead and Brandon Lloyd, i.e., the top five Patriots receivers last season. Welker, Woodhead and Lloyd left; who knows Gronkowski's status is; and Hernandez … well, you probably heard.

Brady can make lemonade out of lemons better than any quarterback, and the Patriots did add solid receivers like Danny Amendola, but this is shaping up to be his most challenging year.

So who DOES want this and can make a ridiculous leap from 2012? Well, it pains me to write this as a Broncos fan, but:

KANSAS CITY

Well, as one would say, the team with the worst record has nowhere to go but up. However, the Chiefs could go up in a big hurry.

New quarterback Alex Smith, based on his leaps-and-bounds improvements during the past few seasons, could continue that trajectory with Jamaal Charles in the backfield and Dwayne Bowe to throw to. The offensive line also graded out better than one would suspect for a team that had the worst record in the league – and now it adds No. 1 pick Eric Fisher at right tackle.

New head coach Andy Reid knows how to put together consistently winning teams. The defense had two good pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, and now features an overhauled secondary.
Can the Chiefs really go from worst to first? Got a feeling anything's possible this year in the AFC.

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